Climate Change: Is it Anthropogenic or Natural.?

Posted by Netra | Thursday, January 15, 2009 | 0 comments »

Fossil fuel shares almost 85% area in world's primary energy consumption pie-chart, with releasing pollutants and CO2 as a consequence. Although the adverse effect of NOx, SOx and suspended particles in environment require no further explanation, the effect of CO2 (also known as GHG) in climate change is, however, not so obvious. There are two schools of thoughts, arguing the climate change with (a) increased concentration of CO2 in atmosphere which, in great extent, caused by human activities, termed as anthropogenic (b) natural events like, atmosphere and sea interaction, solar output, change in the optical depth of atmosphere due to volcanic eruption and so on.
The basic observed fact is that there is rise in earth average temperature from 1900 to 2005 by 0.7 degree Celcius, and it is more apparent when observing the pattern from 1950s (when the fossil fuel use started to accelerate). Many environmental models claim that between 2030-2060, the temperature will rise by 2-5 degree and if the energy consumption pattern is not altered, there will be rise of 3-10 degree by 2100, with threatening the basic life elements. i.e, access to water, food, health, use of land and shelter as a consequence.
Although the modeling of climate change is very complex, with either some parameter or their proper weight is unknown, the anthropogenic effect is more convincing and realistic. Therefore, formation of IPCC involving the scientists from 169 countries, and its activities is appreciable. More surprising and yet annoying facet of this story is that the activities 10% of the population of developed countries making victim to the rest of the population in the world. Let’s see the some fact of the heavy weight countries which did not sign the Kyoto protocol.
  • USA has increased the release of CO2 by 20% since that of 1990s, while the target of Kyoto protocol was to cut by 7%.
  • China will surpass USA in its CO2 release by 2025 if alternative actions are not taken.
  • India has accelerated the CO2 release since past two decades.
However, the good news is that the EU has taken the initiation to reduce the GHG release by 60% of the present amount. Its vow to renewable power generation, in which 50% of total generate electricity will be of renewable type by year 2050, is appreciable. Let’s hope similar step will be taken by the heavy weight countries too.

The World Energy Outlook

Posted by Netra | Thursday, January 08, 2009 | 0 comments »

Every entity and event in the universe is changing, and the cause is the energy being acted upon it. If we correlate the development with the art of guiding/channelling this inevitable change for the wellbeing of society and link the activeness of the average citizen with the advancement, it is logical to define the indicator of life-standard by the per capita energy consumption. Therefore, it is not surprising to label the countries like, USA, Japan, Canada and other European countries (high per capita energy consumption) as developed, and the third world countries (very low energy per capita) as undeveloped/developing. To be more precise, all the efforts and the activities intended to be more advance can roughly be identified by the amount and the art of the energy consumed. The rising rate of energy consumption by the countries like Brazil, China and India will cause the change in the world energy outlook soon. With the faster rate of depleting the fossils fuel sources, the desperation of the countries having high dependency on fossils fuel, will be more apparent. The main source of energy having been non-renewable and their availability on limited amount and place, it is likely that the prospective world politics will be energy centered and it is difficult to know the course it would follow in coming decades. The countries which have ever been covering the western news media like- Middle East, Afghanistan, Russia etc, may have different broadcasting stories in surface, however, it would not be out of context in associating them with the fuel concern. On the basis of the recent forecasted data (see the graph), the petroleum and coal reserve will be almost finished by the end of this century and the natural gas be available until another century. If we are unable to take the proper steps to provide the sustainable solution, especially speaking, if the countries which have not signed the Kyoto protocol are not serious on their approach, it will be impossible to protect the future generation from destining to the stone-age. In conclusion- non-renewable based energy source, the dominancy of few countries in production and consumption , the struggle among the countries to possess these resources, the increasing rate of depletion of the limited energy resources and finally, the alarmingly rising environmental pollution-are the main front pictures appeared in the present energy centered world politics.