Climate Change: Is it Anthropogenic or Natural.?

Fossil fuel shares almost 85% area in world's primary energy consumption pie-chart, with releasing pollutants and CO2 as a consequence. Although the adverse effect of NOx, SOx and suspended particles in environment require no further explanation, the effect of CO2 (also known as GHG) in climate change is, however, not so obvious. There are two schools of thoughts, arguing the climate change with (a) increased concentration of CO2 in atmosphere which, in great extent, caused by human activities, termed as anthropogenic (b) natural events like, atmosphere and sea interaction, solar output, change in the optical depth of atmosphere due to volcanic eruption and so on.

The basic observed fact is that there is rise in earth average temperature from 1900 to 2005 by 0.7 degree Celcius, and it is more apparent when observing the pattern from 1950s (when the fossil fuel use started to accelerate). Many environmental models claim that between 2030-2060, the temperature will rise by 2-5 degree and if the energy consumption pattern is not altered, there will be rise of 3-10 degree by 2100, with threatening the basic life elements. i.e, access to water, food, health, use of land and shelter as a consequence.

Although the modeling of climate change is very complex, with either some parameter or their proper weight is unknown, the anthropogenic effect is more convincing and realistic. Therefore, formation of IPCC involving the scientists from 169 countries, and its activities is appreciable. More surprising and yet annoying facet of this story is that the activities 10% of the population of developed countries making victim to the rest of the population in the world. Let’s see the some fact of the heavy weight countries which did not sign the Kyoto protocol.

• USA has increased the release of CO2 by 20% since that of 1990s, while the target of Kyoto protocol was to cut by 7%.
• China will surpass USA in its CO2 release by 2025 if alternative actions are not taken.
• India has accelerated the CO2 release since past two decades.

However, the good news is that the EU has taken the initiation to reduce the GHG release by 60% of the present amount. Its vow to renewable power generation, in which 50% of total generate electricity will be of renewable type by year 2050, is appreciable. Let’s hope similar step will be taken by the heavy weight countries too.